General disclaimer:
- The scenarios presented here are neither an exact prediction of the future nor do they reflect the opinion of the grid operators . Instead they are intended to investigate the impact of different possible developments towards a climate neutral energy system on the energy transport infrastructures. While the developments reflected in the scenarios have been broadly aligned with different stakeholders, alternative choices or variations on certain developments are possible which can be explored in scenario variants.
- The scenario assumptions for the industry sector are to a large extent taken over from the Carbon Transition Model (CTM) which models industrial processes in high detail and has been set-up in alignment with the largest industry parties in the Netherlands. The sectors being affected are chemicals, refineries, fertilizers, steel and waste. For these sectors, final energy demands are shown in ETM but the underlying inputs and assumptions cannot be changed by the user. For more background please consult the scenario documentation (reports).
- All weather dependent profiles follow the climate pattern of the historic climate year 2012 covering different combinations of supply & demand. Accordingly, for this study climate data (e.g. temperature, irradiation, wind profiles) from the Pan European Climate Database (PECD) has been processed and uploaded to the ETM. In addition, specific sectoral demand profiles have been derived from suitable (public) sources to reflect a realistic demand behaviour.
- The ETM is an energy system model covering all relevant energy carriers and end-user sectors for the aim of modelling how energy is being used under different scenarios and to estimate the impact on relevant energy & climate indicators like energy related emissions. However specific aspects like the electricity market, energy exchanges with surrounding countries, the characteristics and the operation of technologies are modelled in a simplified way for the sake of reducing complexity, keeping calculation times low and ensure as much transparency & accessibility to users as possible. Depending on the study and scope, the grid operators apply other more advanced tools e.g. to simulate the European electricity market in more detail and on the requested level of quality.
Scenario National Drivers (ND):
In the National Drivers scenario the energy transition is strongly steered by the state. In this scenario the Netherlands aim for a high degree of self-sufficiency through, among other things, stimulating significant amounts of own domestic sustainable energy generation sources both on land and sea and a transition towards a circular economy. Wind offshore complemented by solar PV and wind onshore become a backbone for the transition towards a more sustainable energy system. There is a strong focus on electrification in all demand sectors while energy savings and efficiency improvements reduce the overall energy demand. The major role of electricity in the energy system and increasingly weather dependent supply & demand set strong incentives for the emergence of different flexibility options which help to balance the energy system.
Energy Transition Model